WARNING AUSTRALIA!!!!! Housing market to crash 17th July 09
Mactheory July 17th 2009 The markets are up!!! I predict that in 3 weeks, yes THREE WEEKS the markets will begin once again to slide. Dow back down to 8100 ASX200 back to 3700 Englands FTSE under 4200 So keep track of that! www.Marketwatch.com Goldman Sachs Reports Big Profit, Beating Forecasts tiny.cc Goldman Sachs executives sell 0 million in stock: report tiny.cc The Economy Is Even Worse Than You Think tiny.cc Gordan Nuttall Guilty tiny.cc Emissions trading blow: Fielding rejects climate change tiny.cc ——- Letter of the WEEK This weeks email is from shamil tan Points •The housing prices will continue to drop •There will be a general boom in Perth and Darwin, due to the increase in jobs, this will be just before October •By December housing will be cheap, as high unemployment and the nations bad credit rating, will drive people to be evicted, and the banks will repossess alot of houses, passing them on to quick buyers at a cheaper price •If your looking to buy, wait until Febuary next year, and buy a repossessed house of a representative dealer! •Also if youre a student, its worth asking around your local neighbourhood for people who offer student rooms without declaring it as a tax write off, this will become more popular as the economy begins once again to drop —- Housing analysis USA/UK •Housing her have been effected by the current recession •Both have had failing housing prices, which has lead to banks loosing money + investments Australia •Reserve bank …
Video Rating: 4 / 5
www.globalchange.com UK house price trends – recorded July 2007 – warning of possible 10-15% correction fall in UK house prices, but in wider context of longer term more positive outlook. While house prices may fall or rise in short term, UK house prices are generally stronger than they would otherwise be because of many complex factors which include population growth, more people living alone, 100% tax relief on own homes, 18% capital gains tax on property investments, planning restrictions, shortage of land, crisis of confidence in pension funds, poor performance of UK stock market over last decade, so people investing in property instead… plus other factors. Complex area. Expect some kinds of housing to be worse hit eg small flats. Video comment on UK real estate trends by Dr Patrick Dixon, futurist and author of Futurewise, including UK buy to let, UK property investment funds. Message: invest in UK property for long term (unless you sure you can add serious value in doing up a run-down property) and make sure you have contingencies to prevent having to sell property at a bad time ie do not massively overstretch personal finances.
@test2999
Anytime you try to peg a forecast with a time frame, it will almost always be wrong.
However, just look at what is happening in the markets… the underlying fundamentals are looking shaky and clearance rates are at an all time low.
I guess time will tell.
@cabgt. Residental property is a investment in australia. House prices here go up every year and only crashes once in a while. We are out of GFC and house prices in brisbane is rising.
@test2999 House prices in general, some areas more than others of course. When money flows out of an asset is doesn’t leak it flows. History shows this. The market forces will show this. Good for you if you bought cheap and sold high, you made good money. Only people like you will have gained, but most Australians didn’t do what you did. I find that most people here and in the media have no clue about economics etc. Mainly biased propaganda in the media.
@cabgt which house prices are we talking? there markets within markets and every property is priced on its own merit. So when you say house prices will fall you mean all house prices will fall in australia? if so, you are dead wrong. i couldn’t care less about property market in australia where i dont invest. however i have property in double digits and most of those properties have sold for over 30% more then what i paid for them and all +vely geared on 97% loan so i not worried at all
@nishkov I disagree in general. In any asset class if you get in before the bubble and sell during the peak, then yes, it turned-out to be a good or lucky investment (depends if you knew what you were doing in the first place). However, residential property should not be viewed as an investment in the tradional sense of the term for many reasons. I’m sure most Americans and Europeans and many others would feel the same way about your statement. Australia isn’t far away from a correction.
@test2999 I haven’t watched this video yet, but in advance i thought i’d reply to your comment. I guarantee you house prices will fall dramatically in the next 24 months approximately back to the long term average. For the record i do have a job and have studied economics and politics for over 10 years. I don’t follow mainstream media propaganda. If i’m wrong in 2 or so years, feel free to message me to remind me of my statement. Prices will eventually fall as history demonstrates. Good luck!
Property is a Long Term investment. People do make alot of Money out of Property.
Ignorant and uneducated people always believe that something will always go up….and 1929 and 2008 tought us a big lesson…but some people will never learn and burn money….
its sooooooooo funny to watch this video and see how wrong you were, house prices went up idiot, get a job LOL
It’ll all go down next year —2011
@mrbendoverful are u a moron?
A bit early there champ however the last throws of an upward trend are happening then a massive correction will occur between may and july 2010.
They’ll only pay if they owe money, otherwise everyone else pays, like you.
looks like you less than the back of my balls. But now I said that, I’m a bit scared. Coz as soon as I hang shit on someone for something then the opposite happens. But actually that’s OK because if house prices go down so will interest rates and i’ll be better off. Um, show us your tits.
I would say it was foolish to put a time in especially 3weeks lols but in the long term he is correct.
markets are now at 5000. where are the 3500. total clown. get another job hahaha
i cant believe we Australians are not kicking up a fuss about this, future generations will never move out of home , search on YouTube has not got much on this topic (old stuff), you pay $800k for a run down property, i hope the interest rates hit the roof, the greedy who pushed up the prices will then pay for their stupidity.
Ha… No where near it!!
Facts on Steve Fielding:
Evangelical Christian
Former employee of Hewett-Packard, NEC, Siemans, Telecom NZ, United Energy & Vision Super.
Keep them coming Mac. I need to know your ‘predictions’ so that I can do the exact opposite and make a bundle.
way off the mark with stock market predictions
propery bubble WILL burst THAT IS A GIVEN,QUESTION IS WHEN??
this guy was spot on with his prediction, it happend exactly as he said!
Or (3) Steve Fielding will be met with an “accident”.
Me too, thankfully I got EU citizenship too.
US still doesnt want to face reality the DJI leading companies are still way too over valued we are still in a bear market rally trap,after the current market rally. Watchh the US dollar itll be worth nothing soon.
Here in Australia interest rates are variable so you can buy in with “cheap” interest rates and get caught out as they rise. Borrowing 8 1/2 times yearly salary is nowhere near sustainable, what happens if you loose your job? Housing is simply overvalued here in Australia, but the economy relies on debt to act as a motivator rather like the whip did in the days of slaves.
OMG this guy is clueless!
maybe I should not bother commenting now on this, but the reason house prices were so high compared to incomes in July 2007 was because of a relaxation of lending criteria and an explosion of debt. Now the credit has been withdrawn back to more reasonable levels, house prices are falling back to more reasonable levels. it is not difficult to understand.
Good on you, Peter, for keeping this video up despite the critical comments. As I said when you first posted it, I thought you were wrong about housing. Still do.
Perhaps the title needs changing again, sort-term falls of 10-15% is already quite wide of the mark, since we are already at 20% (index-linked).
this video was a wonderful snap-shot…of the housing bubble mentality…GOOD RIDDANCE…
Yes sure. You heard of deflation?
Job losses, pay-cuts, businesses that could only survive in the credit-expansion boom and who borrowed more in the expectation it would continue… now under massive pressure or going under.
House price crash + Wage crash + Rent Crash.
Enjoy the education coming your way.
Ironically, and with hindsight, this video marks the top of the bubble, posted July ’07.
It’s a classic example of bubble mentality. All the hollow cliches and popular misconceptions are included – prices always go up, lack of supply, it’s different this time (with regard to affordability)- perfect nonsense of course. The film maker even manages to lose any remaining credibility by changing the title after the event by adding a warning of short term price falls. Didn’t see this coming?…hmmm
there are over 200,000 vacant property so wots he on about shortage?? also, why are there soo many people on housing waiting list if all these property are empty??
COME ON THE HOUSE PRICE CRASH! Go you good thing go
Buy to let has to be one of the most socially divisive and just plain unpleasant popular speculations ever. The participants are not content just competing with young families who(dare to)aspire to have a tiny stake in their country and security. No. They want to see their rents rise too. The fact that you think it’s OK and your “friends” are “investors” (selfish and greedy)is a harsh indictment on your character, Dixon.
lol…the guy in this video was WAY OFF…
The Crash is Here / The Crash is Clear:
LONDON (Reuters) – House prices fell 1.9 percent this month alone, leaving it 10.5 percent cheaper than at the same time last year — the biggest decline since comparable records began in 1991.
The property market is now plummeting, after 10 years in which prices trebled, as banks hit by the credit crunch have tightened their lending criteria with many now requiring a 25 percent deposit for mortgages.
Thanks – hard to say – I am not really so much interested in short term speculation on house prices. My message is that we need to take a long term view. I am certainly more pessimistic about the short term than I was a year ago. But we will reach a stage, probably within the next 12 months (I am starting to see it already with property investor friends) where people think they can drive a great bargain and want to buy. It all depends on local factors, especially in the buy to let market.
I was waiting for the warning of a possible 10-15% drop. Perhaps I missed it. It has already fallen 12%, and I could easily see it falling another 20% or more. What’s your latest short term and long term forecast? Patrick, you may want to tune into my video on Harrison 18 year Crash cycle. It could help improve your forecasts.
Thanks. Most people live in their properties so selling has complex issues attached including family well-being, and most people are buying property intending to own it for a very long time. Your selling point applies mainly to retiring people looking to realise capital who may have to sit tight with equity release etc until market settles (most have no mortgage) + buy to let landlords (but their rentals have increased significantly last 12 months (>10% in some areas) as people delay buying.
The Property market is and always has been cyclical. All that has happen is that it moved past the peak in the cycle in August 2007. If you had seen the cycle top coming, you could have sold out before the peak. And now it is likely to keep sliding until at least 2011-12, and the next several months may be particularly devasting.
The Bulls who ignored cycles, will now pay for that oversight. And those who understand them, and use them well will be the big winners.
DDBB,
You are on the right track. “The UK is an island… small, no space.” Is not analysis, it is a myth. We have just come thru a Winner’s Curse period. Fred Harrison called it right years ago. Click on my name to see how he did it.
You may be right – who knows. But if that happens there will be likely rebound boom the other side. Easy to lose money dipping in and out of housing market as stages in short term cycles are hard to read and costs of buy / sell huge. First time buyers may want to delay but need to be careful… life is complex. People need homes at particular times, properties they really like come up – will they again? Over 25-30y ears whether one bought at top / bottom market becomes far less significant.
A fall of only 10 to 15%, you will be lucky… my own prediction is a 12 to 15% drop in 2008 and a 15 to 18% drop in 2009 followed by a 5 to 10% drop in 2010 before levelling out in 2011… so a 32 to 43% drop over 3 to 4 years… those of you who brought during this housing boom may be in slight trouble unless purchased before 2000 that is…. the housing market is a cycle it goes up and it goes down… however this time it has got a long long way to fall.. oh dear…
Thanks – important of course to watch whole video. UK housing very complex and cannot be summarised in a 3 minute soundbite (popular YouTube length). So I recorded up to max 10 mins allowed by YouTube, but really still too short. Some people only watch first 3m of 10 so miss wider context, which is why annotations relating to content further in the video now appear in first secion. Weakness of all videos of course – with text the reader can skim read to get the whole sense of the argument.
Thanks – see comment above. Patrick
What a shocker, especially from a futurist. Little more than a stitch together of the bubble theories.
Not surprised you’re backtracking (with the new stickies) and trying to emphasise that these MAY be LONG TERM factors that will sustain the bubble.
YOU FORGOT CREDIT AVAILABILITY. House prices are crashing. They will most probably do so until at least 2010.
It takes something to make David Smith ($40 oil Times economist) look relatively capable of accurate economic forecasts. Well done!
“recruitment becomes impossible”, really? In which parallel world? We are facing stagflation – rising prices, suppressed wages and no real growth. That means unemployment, see today’s news for evidence. No, we will see a fall in living standards and people will accept whatever work they can get, even a pay cut. I witnessed this is the early nineties.
Yes the CPI is a convenient way for the government to talk about a lower rate of inflation than the reality which is closer to RPI – usually around 1% more than CPI. Yes government employees tend to drop behind those in companies – a universal trend over many decades. But the good news is that history shows eventually there are catch ups with larger than inflation increases. Reason is that otherwise point comes where recruitment becomes impossible. Government / NHS is in same labour market.
Inflation would wipe out debt if government would stop lying and masking the realized rate of inflation. Wage increases of 2%, or 1.9% if you are a nurse, will not erode debt like you suggest. The consumer will instead be squeezed from both ends.
It’s worth realizing that although for some countries (Norway)the link between energy consumption and GDP is vague for most it is not, especially developing nations. The economic model you condone only functions in a world of cheap energy.